Anatomy of a Failed Strategy

On May 15, over 7 months into the Gaza war, Israel's PM Bibi Netanyahu interviewed with CNBC's Sarah Eisen and outlined his response to the most pressing issues related to it. Bibi seemed to fare well - he responded to the questions, provided his reasoning and was less evasive than we see him in other situations (e.g. with Israeli or hostile foreign journalists). To her credit, while Eisen does not come off as antagonistic, she has the talent to evoke answers by asking the question again from a different angle, and that worked nicely.

Before I dig into the weeds of this interview and critique it, a paradigm would be useful. Imagine three people: one believes in "traditional medicine" (or close to what Dr. Peter Attia characterizes as "Medicine 1.0" in his fantastic book Outlive - he speaks to the medical profession's practice of treating illness rather than preventing it). The second is a fanatical adherent of "natural medicine" or "holistic medicine". The third combines the two and is willing to try anything that works. 

When these people analyze the results of their treatments, their responses will mostly vary, with some overlap.

The traditional medicine follower will credit it with all success in his treatments, and when it fails, will accept that mainstream medicine isn't  always assured of success. He might try a new prescription or (say in the case of an acute internal, bone or muscle issue) opt for an expensive operation, hoping it'll help.

The natural medicine follower will apply similar logic - first trying natural remedies, and when when facing failure, may give up and let nature have its way. He will only subject to traditional medicine under acute pain and/or peer pressure.

The hybrid-medicine follower will start with a mix of treatments, and progress from there. Although he'll be less apt to attribute success or failure to one approach or another (not knowing exactly what worked and what didn't), he'll continue the experimentation with a greater level of flexibility than the other two folks. 

Ultimately, the human body is subject to atrophy and at some point it will fail and die. However, and as Dr. Attia persuasively argues in his book, we have some control over our late-age quality of life and should take an active role in determining it, through a mix of exercise, good diet, low stress and a flexible approach to medicine.

I believe that this paradigm nicely applies to politics. People tend to explain success or failure of policies based on their pre-existing general opinions of a topic. When I read some of the talkback threads to Middle East media opinion pieces, I am disappointed by the one-sidedness of so many of the responses. It's as if everyone in a debate has a chip on their shoulder and views it as critical that they make enough points to win it. They are the "traditional medicine" and "natural medicine" followers. 

I'm more of the "hybrid medicine" type. Whenever I post a comment to such an article, I try my best (sometimes failing) to shy away from aggressive or insulting language. I try to point out what points I agree to, and which I don't. I'm not trying to win an argument, just to put forward points that any serious person should consider.

In that spirit, I'm making the remarks below on Bibi's Interview. So don't take it personally if you generally side with one wing or another of the Gaza debate, I make points for both camps.

An emotional point first: for many Israelis - including myself - seeing Bibi interviewing on international media at this point in time, is an affront. The man should have resigned many times over since the colossal failure of the Israel government on and after Oct. 7th, on many fronts. Why he still holds power should be mystifying to international observers, and is an outcome of the Israeli coalition politics. In Israel, governments often rise and fall on a thin edge of parliamentary elections. You'll see them fall on minor topics such as, financing for religious communities or judicial reforms. However in this case, the unexpected happened and it is surviving (albeit temporarily) the biggest disaster in Israel's history. In an alternative scenario, suppose Hamas had invaded Israel on Oct 7th and encountered significant pushback. Nevertheless, it had killed or captured a smaller but significant number of soldiers and civilians (say, up to 50). In that case, Bibi would not have had a clear mandate from the public to embark on a land operation in Gaza, but on the other hand would be facing mass demonstrations that might have eventually toppled his government. Hamas, by "succeeding" to the extent it did, forced the Israeli public's hand into supporting a highly aggressive response by it, and kept its inept government in power while the war is being carried out.

So when I watch one of these interviews, I try to imagine another - more honest - spokesperson for Israel responding. Perhaps someone like the excellent Douglas Murray. 

Back to Bibi's interview, the key points were:

1. Asked about the release of $1B in aid to Israel this week and in response to a question about the partial arms embargo (due to the Rafah invasion), he confirmed it and in addition stated that although there are disagreements with the US administration over Rafah, Israel has to do what it has to, to eliminate Hamas: "We cannot continue into the future by having Hamas retake Gaza... it would be a tremendous victory for the Iran terror axis." He also says that although they won't explicitly say so, the elimination of Hamas would be a victory for the moderate Arab nations as well. He then goes on to explain that in 1948 Israel declared its independence while under a US arms embargo (Marshall opposed the declaration at the time) and that in 1991 after Begin bombed the Iraqi nuclear facility, Reagan put in place a 3-month embargo. 

2. Responding to a question about what happens after the war and what Israel wants to see, what should take the place of the power vacuum, he said that before speaking of the day after, there has to be a day after, meaning no Hamas. After that, there should be a non-Hamas civilian authority with Israel maintaining military control there. 

3. Asked about the idea of a two-state solution, he rejects it, saying it would be the greatest reward to the enemy, citing a recent poll that 80% of Palestinians in Gaza/West Bank support the October 7 savagery. Any such state would immediately be taken over by Hamas and Iran, and become a launch pad to future wars. Instead, he wants to provide the Palestinians with all the power they need to govern themselves, and none of the power to threaten Israel's survival.

Regardless of your side on the conflict, his reasoning should come across as somewhat sound. A sovereign nation should be able to protect itself, and wouldn't make sense to leave Gaza, handing it back to Hamas (the claims by the South African representative at the Hague kangaroo court that Israel does not have a right to self-defense against an "occupied" power are self-contradictory and ridiculous, since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005). A civilian authority makes sense, continued military control seems to make sense (although it comes with a hefty price), and it's difficult to argue for a Palestinian state in the near future, given the current political landscape both within the Palestinian territories and Israel.

However, Bibi is relying on the fact that most of the viewers are unfamiliar with the intricacies of the conflict, and in particular how they've been unfolding on the ground. A few facts to chew on are:

1. The ground invasion into Gaza did not include a plan for dealing with the millions of Gazans being displaced - from a humanitarian and logistical perspective. While Israel has considerable logistical capabilities, they weren't deployed at all in that first stage. In fact, some politicians including Government ministers, called to not allow food and medical supplies into Gaza at all, until the hostages are released.
   
   
2. After most Gazans moved to the southern part of the enclave, and Israel completed its military campaign in the northern and central parts, Israel proceeded to withdraw most of its forces from them, and left a vacuum of power in those neighbourhoods. Not surprisingly, surviving Hamas terrorists stepped right back into them. In fact, Israel is now finding itself entering and battling in the same areas for the third and fourth time. This doesn't seem like the result of a well executed military strategy.
   
   
3. Israel (led by Bibi) has consistently resisted any attempt by the USA and moderate Arab states coalition, to carve a hostage release deal in return for a cease fire. Even a partial deal for a partial cease fire (the period mentioned was 6 weeks), was rejected. Here, we really have to be cautious in criticism, since Hamas had cynically and brutally used these negotiations to play a delay game in which additional hostages have been killed or died from illnesses and wounds. But when a proposal was made for a "grand deal" in which Israel would end the war in return for all of the hostages and a retreat of the top Hamas leaders out of Gaza, it was reportedly rejected by Bibi out of hand. If this is indeed the case, then the families of the hostages are justified in their declarations that they'll "burn down the country" until their loved ones are released.
   
   
4. The northern part of Israel has suffered from a slow-moving and constant rocket war by Hezbollah, displacing 60,000 civilians and creating an economic and human disaster area there. Israel has done nothing diplomatically to de-escalate that situation, albeit handcuffed by the Gaza situation and thousands of Iranian-made rockets pointed at its cities.

There are many other details that outsiders probably wouldn't easily digest or be interested in - but suffice to say that the level of discontent and anger in Israel now is high. A poll released by the local channel 12 on May 17th, has Bibi's Likud party getting 19 out of 120 parliament seats and losing its governing coalition if elections were held now.

Here are the questions I would ask Bibi if I had the opportunity. While some Israeli journalists have mustered the courage to pose some version of them in his sporadic visits to military outposts, he bats them down with glib and dismissive responses.

1. Why didn't you resign after the colossal failure of your government to protect Israel on Oct. 7th? Isn't your job description bullet point no. 1, protection of the citizens of Israel?
   
   
2. Why have you so badly bungled the issue of civilian services in Gaza? Did you think that after eliminating Hamas, a fairy godmother would step in to manage it? 
   
   
3. Why have you and your government done such a poor job of defining and communicating a positive, forward vision for Israel in the occupied territories? When you offer the Palestinians "full control over civilian matters", does that include a future vision - maybe in 5 or 10 years - to peaceful statehood with Israel? If not, do you think they'll agree to live forever under the Israeli military thumb? Granted, Israel should never allow another terrorist state, but why not try and create a new dynamic towards progress?

This is a very sad and depressing time for Israel lovers watching the events unfold. I, along with others, had hoped that Israel would couple its vital military response to Hamas, with a wise and forward-looking approach to the future of the Middle East. Instead, we have a Pink Panther episode courtesy of the Israeli government, coupled by a truly heroic response by its grassroots fighters and civilians. I pray that Bibi Netanyahu soon step off the stage and let others take the reigns of power. He's done enough damage.

 

Time for Elections

Article by ex-PM Ehud Barak, March 30, 2024. Poorly translated by Google and post-edited by myself:

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Multiple fiascos have defined the Netanyahu government and its conduct during the war. If it does not fall - the war of attrition that started as the most justified one on October 7, will not end in the foreseeable future. Elections now are the only way to win the war, so they must take place.

What else needs to happen so that together, hundreds of thousands of citizens take to the streets, demonstrate at the Knesset along with opposition members of it, bringing everyday business to a halt? So that the leadership of the Histadrut labour movement, the leaders of the economy and high-tech, lecturers and students, youth movements and military academies, march alongside the abducted, murdered families, and displaced communities, and refuse to return to the routine of life? ...until an immediate election date is set!

Only then will we win the war, bring the hostages home, the displaced safely to their homes, and bring Israel back to normalcy. And we must do this now, immediately, before we are dragged into the abyss by those who wreaked this destruction, led by Netanyahu, who was indeed the prime minister in the last half generation, so he is responsible, even if not the only one. He is the head, and therefore also guilty.

About three Failures

Failure #1. Six months have passed since the most severe event in the history of our country, with 1,200 murdered, burned, raped, beheaded, and 250 abducted in Gaza. Netanyahu's concept that "Hamas is an asset that must be bribed for hundreds of millions of dollars - and the Palestinian Authority is a burden", totally collapsed. The illusion that Israel can navigate a harsh environment like the Middle East without making any difficult or painful decision has also collapsed. As well, the assessment that normalization is possible with the Saudis while ignoring the Palestinian issue, has been proven false.

Failure #2. We are in the longest war since the 1948 war of independence. A war as just as any, with its purpose the return of the kidnapped, and to ensure that an event like 10/7 can never return. We are fighting it so that Hamas will never return to control Gaza and cannot threaten Israel, and so that displaced people in the north will be able to safely return to their homes. The war has so far left hundreds of dead, thousands of wounded, disabled and mentally impacted. But even after six months, when IDF fighters beat Hamas with wonderful determination and unity, victory appears months away, and the war in Gaza has ground down to a stalemate. 

At the same time in the north, displaced people and the ongoing attrition battles with Hezbollah have the potential to expand at any moment to a full war. In the West Bank, the potential of a 'third intifada' is bubbling just beneath the surface. All of this while in the background, Iran is rubbing its hands with pleasure, its proxies exhausting Israel while Iran itself is progressing to military nuclear capability. 

Relations with the US have deteriorated to an unprecedented low, with hostility between Netanyahu and Biden. Israel is critically dependent on the United States for arms supplies and financing, deterring Iran and Hezbollah, for formulating a practical plan for "the day after," and for diplomatic coverage in the Security Council and the Criminal Court in The Hague.

Failure #3. The strategic navigation of the war is weak and unstable because Netanyahu, (according to Eisencott, senior Government minister whose party joined it after 10/7 to support the war effort) stutters and makes no strategic decisions on any issue. No Rafah, no kidnappers, no humanitarian aid, no the North and Hezbollah, no "the day after" and no to relations with the US. In the absence of strategic decisions, Israel is shuffling, losing achievements we already had (refer to Shifa Hospital which we took over, left and then had to return). Instead of strategic decisions, he deceives the public with poll-based soundbites.

Ben Gurion' s Way

Ben-Gurion (Israel's first PM), followed by all his successors, believed that Israel should not enter a comprehensive war without a world power beside it; he believed that war, when necessary, must be short and intense. Israel should strive for a quick decision on enemy land; and that before and during the wars, Israel must always hold on to the "moral supremacy position" to allow the translation of military achievement – into political ones. Netanyahu failed miserably in these three components, evolving from security considerations to coalition survival calculations.

The fate of the kidnapped

134 kidnapped people are still in Gaza, and according to various estimates almost half of them are no longer alive. Our spines chill, thinking about what they go through there every day and night. Our negotiating team - the Mossad head Dadi Barnea, the Shabak (Internal Security) head Ronen Barr and the ex-General Nitzan Alon - do not yet have the mandate required to maneuver in negotiations, to get a deal and return them home. Any deal will be difficult and painful, but failure to exhaust the chance of their release, or delaying it for months to the "ultimate victory," will bring the kidnapped back in caskets and will cast an eternal stain on those who contributed to the delay, as well as on those who stood by.

The question of Netanyahu's competence 

While the IDF operations are carried out with courage and sacrifice, at the political level there are no strategic decisions by Netanyahu, who is in a conflict of interest between his personal political survival and security considerations. As someone who knows him well, I am convinced that Netanyahu today is unqualified to continue as prime minister. 

Netanyahu is not a novice; he is very experienced in politics, educated and intelligent, but his functioning has deteriorated since his trial, in the Covid-19 period, in the recent election rounds, and in the "judicial coup" that was halted by public protest. Moreover, the 10/7 events and subsequent war have taken him out of balance and have weakened his grasp on reality. The result is a monumental failure in state and war management.

Is it appropriate to overthrow a government during a war?

Under normal conditions, when a government has been established, it is appropriate to have it serve a full term. The role of the opposition is to try to replace the government during that term. In normal circumstances, the public will wait for the scheduled election date to replace a government. However, we are not in normal circumstances: 

First: We are in a war conceived with the most serious and deadly event in the history of the country, a long war far from over, where there is still a high probability of its expanding into an overall regional war. It is an unprecedented political, functional and human shake-up, preceded by ten months of turbulent struggle for Israel's soul as a Zionist-Jewish-liberal democracy in the spirit of the Declaration of Independence. 

Second: The current government is for the first time in Israel's history, characterized by the presence of a racist-messianic party, whereby Netanyahu has surrendered to its dictates, even at a severe impact on the national interest and proper governing norms, because their potential withdrawal from the coalition would jeopardize its continued rule. Netanyahu seems to have completely lost public confidence. The polls indicate that 80% of the public sees Netanyahu as the central responsible for the default, and over 70% expect him to resign. 

Furthermore, the manipulations during the war around the "evasion law" (allowing ultra-orthodox to lawfully not be conscripted to the military), which were at this point halted by a High Court interim order, have clarified to the Likud supporters and religious Zionists, that the king is naked, What drives Netanyahu is not the need to be worthy of the fighters' determination but rather coalition survival, even at the cost of disrespecting the fighters, their dedication and their sacrifice.

Third: The bitter truth is that the mantra "together we will win" which is the foundation and secret of cohesion in the warring units, is an empty hypocrisy in public-political discourse - the judicial coup is creeping back in all systems of government as if nothing happened and will race back on steroids if only given the opportunity. Deep contempt is reflected in the decision to allow the Knesset to go on its regular spring break. And the piggishness of the Netanyahu family's behavior, from continued renovations to their Caesarea swimming pool, to assigning special security and transportation to their son (Yair Netanyahu) in Miami, all from public funds, while the families of the hostages sink into despair, the injured limbs struggle for their rehabilitation, reserve military struggle to keep their crumbling business alive, and displaced people wallow in the face of the destruction of their homes, farms and families.

The claim that elections would strengthen Sinwar (head of Hamas) and Nasrallah (head of Hezbollah) is completely unfounded. For both, continuing Netanyahu's rule is a wet dream. Who has ever brought them such achievements and is the gift that never ends? What exactly would make them happy to see another prime minister, who would restore the US to re-standing with Israel and deter Hezbollah and Iran, coordinate with the "moderate axis", normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, keep Hamas out of power and to eliminate its military capabilities while Israel maintains security needs in front of the Gaza Strip and the north?

Israel should also be replaced in Gaza by an inter-Arab force that gradually returns to an enhanced and strengthened Palestinian Authority, backed by Egyptian security, funded by the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It's not ideal, but it's practical. We will not directly rule Gaza, and won't have Norwegians or Swiss replace us there. The Palestinians in Gaza are not going anywhere, and we have good reasons not to stay there for a generation.

In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the requirement to hold elections immediately is not a requirement to punish those responsible for past failures, namely, events 10/7 and the failed strategic management in the six months of fighting since (and possibly the failure of the judicial coup). 

Basically, this is a forward-looking requirement. 

At a high probability, we still have in front of us more difficult combat tests than we knew, and certainly complicated negotiation and diplomacy tests than we've experienced. 

We also have the challenges of restoring military deterrence, renewing IDF's capabilities, and building trust in state institutions and other elements of society. 

You can't do that with current leadership that has failed so miserably.

It is essential to go into this challenging future with a government that has gained renewed confidence from the people. Netanyahu will be able to run for election. The people will decide, there is no alternative. And I believe that they will decide correctly.

How will this government fall? 

There is no way to anticipate exactly how the landslide will occur, and the possibilities are endless. This could be due to the recognition of Ben Gvir and Smotrich (extreme right wing ministers) that Netanyahu is capitulating under American pressure and does not rule out a future debate on two states, or it could be the recognition of the ultra-Orthodox that Netanyahu will not be able to continue to transfer the support money to the yeshiva students (ultra-orthodox). This might come from an internal shock within the Likud against the backdrop of moves that seem to lead to elections, when a sudden "constructive non-confidence" motion can seem attractive to certain Knesset members. Or it might come from turning the High Court's interim order on the "evasion law" into an established matter of law. It is also possible to more than one of these events will occur.

But the key point is in my humble opinion elsewhere. I often discuss this topic with influential people in their field. Many of them respond, quite similarly: "Barak, I was convinced that you see a serious situation, which should get us out of our couches, overturn the proverbial table not let go until elections are announced. But you're not the only person around. What does the 'common citizen' know that Gantz (senior Minister, centrist who joined the government after 10/7) doesn't know? That Eisencott doesn't know? That Lapid doesn't know? That Lieberman doesn't know? As long as all these folks stay silent, I, the "common citizen" realize that it is not yet time for demonstrations". My response is that our other political leaders do bear heavy responsibility for the fact that Israel continues to glide towards the abyss. I believe they will wake up, and the sooner they do so the better. But we cannot leave it just for their consideration. 

If they do not act, action is required, massive and determined enough for our political leaders to not afford to ignore it. This is not the ideal way, but if we want life we will have to fight with all our might, until elections are declared. After all, it is our own lives and just as important, in the future and destiny of Israel. Tomorrow, Sunday, March 31, 2024, will be the first day of three consecutive protest days in front of the Knesset, 24/7. "A thousand-mile journey, begins with one step". This is the most important journey of our generation.