Time for Elections

Article by ex-PM Ehud Barak, March 30, 2024. Poorly translated by Google and post-edited by myself:

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Multiple fiascos have defined the Netanyahu government and its conduct during the war. If it does not fall - the war of attrition that started as the most justified one on October 7, will not end in the foreseeable future. Elections now are the only way to win the war, so they must take place.

What else needs to happen so that together, hundreds of thousands of citizens take to the streets, demonstrate at the Knesset along with opposition members of it, bringing everyday business to a halt? So that the leadership of the Histadrut labour movement, the leaders of the economy and high-tech, lecturers and students, youth movements and military academies, march alongside the abducted, murdered families, and displaced communities, and refuse to return to the routine of life? ...until an immediate election date is set!

Only then will we win the war, bring the hostages home, the displaced safely to their homes, and bring Israel back to normalcy. And we must do this now, immediately, before we are dragged into the abyss by those who wreaked this destruction, led by Netanyahu, who was indeed the prime minister in the last half generation, so he is responsible, even if not the only one. He is the head, and therefore also guilty.

About three Failures

Failure #1. Six months have passed since the most severe event in the history of our country, with 1,200 murdered, burned, raped, beheaded, and 250 abducted in Gaza. Netanyahu's concept that "Hamas is an asset that must be bribed for hundreds of millions of dollars - and the Palestinian Authority is a burden", totally collapsed. The illusion that Israel can navigate a harsh environment like the Middle East without making any difficult or painful decision has also collapsed. As well, the assessment that normalization is possible with the Saudis while ignoring the Palestinian issue, has been proven false.

Failure #2. We are in the longest war since the 1948 war of independence. A war as just as any, with its purpose the return of the kidnapped, and to ensure that an event like 10/7 can never return. We are fighting it so that Hamas will never return to control Gaza and cannot threaten Israel, and so that displaced people in the north will be able to safely return to their homes. The war has so far left hundreds of dead, thousands of wounded, disabled and mentally impacted. But even after six months, when IDF fighters beat Hamas with wonderful determination and unity, victory appears months away, and the war in Gaza has ground down to a stalemate. 

At the same time in the north, displaced people and the ongoing attrition battles with Hezbollah have the potential to expand at any moment to a full war. In the West Bank, the potential of a 'third intifada' is bubbling just beneath the surface. All of this while in the background, Iran is rubbing its hands with pleasure, its proxies exhausting Israel while Iran itself is progressing to military nuclear capability. 

Relations with the US have deteriorated to an unprecedented low, with hostility between Netanyahu and Biden. Israel is critically dependent on the United States for arms supplies and financing, deterring Iran and Hezbollah, for formulating a practical plan for "the day after," and for diplomatic coverage in the Security Council and the Criminal Court in The Hague.

Failure #3. The strategic navigation of the war is weak and unstable because Netanyahu, (according to Eisencott, senior Government minister whose party joined it after 10/7 to support the war effort) stutters and makes no strategic decisions on any issue. No Rafah, no kidnappers, no humanitarian aid, no the North and Hezbollah, no "the day after" and no to relations with the US. In the absence of strategic decisions, Israel is shuffling, losing achievements we already had (refer to Shifa Hospital which we took over, left and then had to return). Instead of strategic decisions, he deceives the public with poll-based soundbites.

Ben Gurion' s Way

Ben-Gurion (Israel's first PM), followed by all his successors, believed that Israel should not enter a comprehensive war without a world power beside it; he believed that war, when necessary, must be short and intense. Israel should strive for a quick decision on enemy land; and that before and during the wars, Israel must always hold on to the "moral supremacy position" to allow the translation of military achievement – into political ones. Netanyahu failed miserably in these three components, evolving from security considerations to coalition survival calculations.

The fate of the kidnapped

134 kidnapped people are still in Gaza, and according to various estimates almost half of them are no longer alive. Our spines chill, thinking about what they go through there every day and night. Our negotiating team - the Mossad head Dadi Barnea, the Shabak (Internal Security) head Ronen Barr and the ex-General Nitzan Alon - do not yet have the mandate required to maneuver in negotiations, to get a deal and return them home. Any deal will be difficult and painful, but failure to exhaust the chance of their release, or delaying it for months to the "ultimate victory," will bring the kidnapped back in caskets and will cast an eternal stain on those who contributed to the delay, as well as on those who stood by.

The question of Netanyahu's competence 

While the IDF operations are carried out with courage and sacrifice, at the political level there are no strategic decisions by Netanyahu, who is in a conflict of interest between his personal political survival and security considerations. As someone who knows him well, I am convinced that Netanyahu today is unqualified to continue as prime minister. 

Netanyahu is not a novice; he is very experienced in politics, educated and intelligent, but his functioning has deteriorated since his trial, in the Covid-19 period, in the recent election rounds, and in the "judicial coup" that was halted by public protest. Moreover, the 10/7 events and subsequent war have taken him out of balance and have weakened his grasp on reality. The result is a monumental failure in state and war management.

Is it appropriate to overthrow a government during a war?

Under normal conditions, when a government has been established, it is appropriate to have it serve a full term. The role of the opposition is to try to replace the government during that term. In normal circumstances, the public will wait for the scheduled election date to replace a government. However, we are not in normal circumstances: 

First: We are in a war conceived with the most serious and deadly event in the history of the country, a long war far from over, where there is still a high probability of its expanding into an overall regional war. It is an unprecedented political, functional and human shake-up, preceded by ten months of turbulent struggle for Israel's soul as a Zionist-Jewish-liberal democracy in the spirit of the Declaration of Independence. 

Second: The current government is for the first time in Israel's history, characterized by the presence of a racist-messianic party, whereby Netanyahu has surrendered to its dictates, even at a severe impact on the national interest and proper governing norms, because their potential withdrawal from the coalition would jeopardize its continued rule. Netanyahu seems to have completely lost public confidence. The polls indicate that 80% of the public sees Netanyahu as the central responsible for the default, and over 70% expect him to resign. 

Furthermore, the manipulations during the war around the "evasion law" (allowing ultra-orthodox to lawfully not be conscripted to the military), which were at this point halted by a High Court interim order, have clarified to the Likud supporters and religious Zionists, that the king is naked, What drives Netanyahu is not the need to be worthy of the fighters' determination but rather coalition survival, even at the cost of disrespecting the fighters, their dedication and their sacrifice.

Third: The bitter truth is that the mantra "together we will win" which is the foundation and secret of cohesion in the warring units, is an empty hypocrisy in public-political discourse - the judicial coup is creeping back in all systems of government as if nothing happened and will race back on steroids if only given the opportunity. Deep contempt is reflected in the decision to allow the Knesset to go on its regular spring break. And the piggishness of the Netanyahu family's behavior, from continued renovations to their Caesarea swimming pool, to assigning special security and transportation to their son (Yair Netanyahu) in Miami, all from public funds, while the families of the hostages sink into despair, the injured limbs struggle for their rehabilitation, reserve military struggle to keep their crumbling business alive, and displaced people wallow in the face of the destruction of their homes, farms and families.

The claim that elections would strengthen Sinwar (head of Hamas) and Nasrallah (head of Hezbollah) is completely unfounded. For both, continuing Netanyahu's rule is a wet dream. Who has ever brought them such achievements and is the gift that never ends? What exactly would make them happy to see another prime minister, who would restore the US to re-standing with Israel and deter Hezbollah and Iran, coordinate with the "moderate axis", normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, keep Hamas out of power and to eliminate its military capabilities while Israel maintains security needs in front of the Gaza Strip and the north?

Israel should also be replaced in Gaza by an inter-Arab force that gradually returns to an enhanced and strengthened Palestinian Authority, backed by Egyptian security, funded by the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It's not ideal, but it's practical. We will not directly rule Gaza, and won't have Norwegians or Swiss replace us there. The Palestinians in Gaza are not going anywhere, and we have good reasons not to stay there for a generation.

In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the requirement to hold elections immediately is not a requirement to punish those responsible for past failures, namely, events 10/7 and the failed strategic management in the six months of fighting since (and possibly the failure of the judicial coup). 

Basically, this is a forward-looking requirement. 

At a high probability, we still have in front of us more difficult combat tests than we knew, and certainly complicated negotiation and diplomacy tests than we've experienced. 

We also have the challenges of restoring military deterrence, renewing IDF's capabilities, and building trust in state institutions and other elements of society. 

You can't do that with current leadership that has failed so miserably.

It is essential to go into this challenging future with a government that has gained renewed confidence from the people. Netanyahu will be able to run for election. The people will decide, there is no alternative. And I believe that they will decide correctly.

How will this government fall? 

There is no way to anticipate exactly how the landslide will occur, and the possibilities are endless. This could be due to the recognition of Ben Gvir and Smotrich (extreme right wing ministers) that Netanyahu is capitulating under American pressure and does not rule out a future debate on two states, or it could be the recognition of the ultra-Orthodox that Netanyahu will not be able to continue to transfer the support money to the yeshiva students (ultra-orthodox). This might come from an internal shock within the Likud against the backdrop of moves that seem to lead to elections, when a sudden "constructive non-confidence" motion can seem attractive to certain Knesset members. Or it might come from turning the High Court's interim order on the "evasion law" into an established matter of law. It is also possible to more than one of these events will occur.

But the key point is in my humble opinion elsewhere. I often discuss this topic with influential people in their field. Many of them respond, quite similarly: "Barak, I was convinced that you see a serious situation, which should get us out of our couches, overturn the proverbial table not let go until elections are announced. But you're not the only person around. What does the 'common citizen' know that Gantz (senior Minister, centrist who joined the government after 10/7) doesn't know? That Eisencott doesn't know? That Lapid doesn't know? That Lieberman doesn't know? As long as all these folks stay silent, I, the "common citizen" realize that it is not yet time for demonstrations". My response is that our other political leaders do bear heavy responsibility for the fact that Israel continues to glide towards the abyss. I believe they will wake up, and the sooner they do so the better. But we cannot leave it just for their consideration. 

If they do not act, action is required, massive and determined enough for our political leaders to not afford to ignore it. This is not the ideal way, but if we want life we will have to fight with all our might, until elections are declared. After all, it is our own lives and just as important, in the future and destiny of Israel. Tomorrow, Sunday, March 31, 2024, will be the first day of three consecutive protest days in front of the Knesset, 24/7. "A thousand-mile journey, begins with one step". This is the most important journey of our generation.